Objective: To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Design: Population-level aggregate analysis. Setting Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Methods: We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible–exposed–infected– critical–recovery–death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model.

Objective: To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Design: Population-level aggregate analysis. Setting Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Uni...